In less than a month, the great state of Louisiana is going to vote in our Presidential Primary.  Louisiana is a closed primary system and I am a registered Republican.  For this reason, we will restrict the conversation of presidential candidates to the Republican ticket.  I do not share the policy platforms of the Democratic Party and do not feel qualified or motivated to chose their Presidential candidate. The Republican Presidential field is wide open.  The news coverage of this election cycle has been quite depressing.  Political pundits predict incorrect outcomes from poor polling data.  The media focuses on sound bites and focus groups, leaving issues and debate to the bloggers and talk radio personalities.  The raw data on both sides of the aisles is, to say the least, inconclusive.  Less than three percent of the national delegates have been committed to a candidate. 

Primary election voters have assigned 70 of 2,830 delegates to the Republican National Convention. If you were to turn on the television to any twenty-four hour electoral circuses, one would assume there are four candidates for the Republican Presidential Nominee (Romney, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee.  I am a Fred Thompson supporter and a statistics watcher.  I watch polling data and debates religiously.  I research election rules and study past elections results, turnouts and demographics.  I follow the money trail each candidate files with the Federal Elections Commission quarterly.

I would like to dispel some myths about the candidates and assessments for the outcome of the race.  It is not logically, statistically or remotely possible to predict the outcome of this election at this point.  All of the major indicators (money, percentage of the vote, state primary winners or the infamous opinion polls) disagree on the outcome of the election.  However, the television analysts are picking new horses despite the misleading exit polling data gathered in New Hampshire Democratic primary.  Mitt Romney has 30 Convention Delegates assigned to him.  These 30 delegates account for a whopping 42% of the 70 assigned delegates or 1%of the total vote.  Romney has brought home two silver and a bronze, but not yet a gold. 

Romney is winning the race for delegates, but Giuliani is winning the race for cash.  The Giuliani campaign has $16,649,826 on hand, but only one National Convention delegate.  The Romney campaign has $9,216,517 is available funds.  Ron Paul fanatics have supposedly revolutionized the internet campaign fund-raising.  Ron Paul only has $5,443,667 cold, hard cash.  I must commend Ron Paul for being the only candidate who has raised all of his money from individual contributors.  Fred Thompson has more money and three times the delegates Ron Paul does.  McCain won New Hampshire, but only has 14% of the delegates.  McCain's campaign is also running low on funding.  Huckabee won Iowa and has gained 30% of the delegates.   His coffers are quite bare as well.  (The Center for Responsible Politics has a wonderful campaign finance comparison).

The Real Clear Politics assemblies the average of all the national pools and currently has McCain on top (Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney have been favored in the last 30 days).  The race is up in the air.  Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee all have a chance.  Ron Paul, Alan Keyes and Duncan Hunter could still show well.  Take a minute and read about the candidates.  This election is about what is best for this country; it cannot be reduced to a pithy sound bite.  This race is not over.  Your candidate and my candidate still have a chance.  Get involved.  Declaring any candidate out of the race today is comparable to declaring Ohio State the National BCS Champion based on the score at the end of the first possession.  We know how that turned out. 

But no one listens to me

-Patriotic Progeny

Posted:01/11/08